Thursday, April 2, 2009

Jay Cutler to 'Skins?

Alright, so it may be obvious that I'm a 'Skins fan and have a bias towards writing about them in this blog. Well now with the rumors floating around that Jay Culter could be coming to the 'Skins in a trade that would send the incumbent QB Jason Campbell elsewhere I feel the need to show some stats and provide a view of why Cutler may not be the answer.
For a long time now I've backed Jason Campbell saying that he's been hamstrung by a front office that has made both coaching and personnel moves that are questionable. Now I did a little research this morning on stats from each players' 2008 season, which was arguebly the best in their short careers. Lets take a look;
Jay Cutler:
average rank of defense faced: 19.875
qb rating: 87.15
tds: 25
ints: 18
Jason Campbell:
average rank of defense faced: 12.9375
qb rating: 85.97
tds: 13
ints: 6

When you look at these stats you see that Cutler faced inferior defenses and had a higher rating. Cutler also threw 12 more TDs than Campbell but a caviat to that would be that he also threw 12 more INTs than Campbell as well.

Next lets look at the top 5 and bottom 5 games each had and their average QB ranking and the average rank of the defense in those games.

Jay Cutler:
Top 5
Avg Defense: 20.8
Avg QB Rating: 112.82
Bottom 5
Avg Defense: 17.4
Avg QB Rating: 63.82

Jason Campbell:
Top 5
Avg Defense: 18.2
Avg QB Rating: 109.82
Bottom 5
Avg Defense: 3.4
Avg QB Rating: 63.12

Now these statistics may be the most interesting. For Jay Cutler, his best five games last year on average faced a defense that was ranked 1-2 spots lower than Jason Campbell's five best games. Cutler did have a QB rating 3 pts better in these five games but can that be attributed to worse pass rated defenses? Maybe, maybe not. Now when you look at the bottom five games for each player something to me really stands out. On average Campbell faced defenses ranked 3.4 in his bottom five games and had an average QB rating of 63.12. When you look at Cutler you see that he faced defenses that averaged a rank of 17.4 and his QB rating was only marginally better at 63.82.

Maybe I'm reading way too much into this but most people are arguing over stats when comparing the two. But when you argue that Cutler is way better than Campbell a breakdown in stats shows that "way" better is only "marginally" better. I'm fine with Campbell and think that Zorn can make Campbell even better so giving up 2 first-round picks and possibly Campbell just to get Cutler doesn't make much sense. There are more important needs to fill on the 'Skins roster than QB. I guess we'll see how it all plays out.

1 comment:

  1. Brilliant breakdown. Please send to D$